Photovoltaic manufacturing can be roughly divided into polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, components four links, 2021 China's global production of these four manufacturing links are more than 75%.

To what extent is China's photovoltaic strength? Is photovoltaic really worth being so optimistic? Does this track have long-term competitiveness? Recently, hundreds of billions of market capitalization leader Tongwei heavy voice, its book "the future of carbon neutral and human energy first protagonist" book, in-depth analysis of the logic of photovoltaic, its own development path and the industry's judgment and to tell the truth, the photovoltaic new energy.

When clean energy consumption accounts for more than 80% of future energy consumption, solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, nuclear energy, hydrogen energy and biomass energy will play an important role. But which energy source will be the backbone?

The answer is solar energy.

Solar energy is everywhere and the total amount is huge. People can obtain this zero-emission and zero-pollution sustainable clean energy at a very low cost.

On the road to carbon neutrality, the energy that can really play the leading role should be solar energy with shorter path, higher conversion efficiency and relatively more convenient utilization.

In essence, whether it is traditional fossil energy, or wind energy, hydropower, biomass energy and other new energy, have not jumped out of the sun itself, but different forms of solar energy.

Since solar energy is everywhere, the collection of scattered energy is one of the main sources of future energy for mankind. However, the solar energy we are talking about here refers to the direct conversion of photovoltaic, photothermal and photochemical of solar radiation energy. In particular, photoelectric conversion, that is, solar photovoltaic power generation, is a more promising energy technology.

First, advanced technical principles

The principle of solar photovoltaic power generation is simpler and faster than other energy sources. Fossil energy needs to be converted into heat energy and then into electricity through combustion. Wind energy and water energy need to convert the kinetic energy of wind and water into mechanical energy, and then into electrical energy.

The solar energy is directly converted from the photon movement to the electron movement, which is the direct conversion from light to electricity. This means that the principle of photovoltaic power generation is simple and advanced.

Second, the total amount is huge.

It is estimated that the daily solar energy received on the earth's surface is equivalent to the energy produced by 0.1 billion barrels of oil. Even if the sun shines on the earth for one hour, the energy accumulated is enough for human consumption for one year.

Moreover, this huge fireball has been boiling for nearly 5 billion years. According to physicists, the life of the sun is about 10 billion years, so the sun can shine on the earth for 5 billion years. Solar energy is almost "eternal energy".

Third, points.Buguang

The term "sunshine" describes the properties of solar energy particularly accurately. Solar energy is a more accessible and equitable source of energy than any other.

China's annual sunshine hours more than 2000 hours of the total land area of more than 2/3, with good conditions for the use of solar energy. This is not even comparable to wind energy, which is known for its "wide distribution", let alone traditional energy sources such as oil and coal.

Fourth, the most important raw material for photovoltaic power generation "silicon" is very rich

my country is rich in silicon resources. There are giant silicon ores with reserves of 10 million tons or even more than 100 million tons in the northeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Donghai in Jiangsu, Yanshi in Henan, Shizuishan in Ningxia, Yichang in Hubei, Leshan in Sichuan, Guangyuan, and Zhaotong in Yunnan. High-grade silica-containing ores have been found almost all over the country.

Fifth, a wide range of application scenarios

It can not only build centralized power stations, but also generate electricity by building distributed small power stations and even installing battery components on the roof of each household. In aerospace, transportation, agriculture, construction, military, urban lighting and other fields, solar photovoltaic power generation can be applied.

Even in deserts and islands far away from people, they will be brightly lit because of photovoltaic power generation.

These attributes determine that solar photovoltaic power generation has great development potential. It is a well-deserved clean energy protagonist.

Ten years ago, the cost of photovoltaic power generation equipment and systems per 1KW was 30000 to 50000 yuan. With the continuous expansion of the industrial scale, the continuous acceleration of technology iteration and the rapid promotion of intelligent manufacturing, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped by more than 90%.

In the next three to five years, the cost of 1KW photovoltaic power generation may drop to 2000 yuan, 1000 yuan, or even lower. Low-cost, clean and pollution-free photovoltaic power generation is being accepted by more and more countries and their residents, and its application is rapidly spreading around the world.

More and more photovoltaic power plants have sprung up, and more and more cheap photovoltaics have been incorporated into the grid.

On May 11, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Matters Related to the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2021, proposing that the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the whole society will reach about 11% in 2021, and will increase year by year to ensure that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025. At the same time, we will establish diversified guarantee mechanisms such as guaranteed grid connection and market connection, in 2021, the scale of the guaranteed grid connection of the scenery shall not be less than 90 million KW.

With strong technology and manufacturing capabilities, sufficiently low costs and active industrial policies, by 2060,

How much PV will there be in Chinese society?

As a country with a larger population and the second largest economy in the world, as well as the world's largest energy producer and consumer, China will achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, what should be the proportion of photovoltaics in the entire energy system?

What is the installed PV capacity per capita?

Answering these questions not only sets the direction and goals for my country to achieve carbon neutrality, but also affects the development of the photovoltaic industry, because it determines how much impact clean energy will bring to our society.

The "Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)" proposes that non-fossil energy will account for more than half of the national energy system by 2050.

However, many opinion leaders in the industry believe that this goal is still too conservative, because the development of the photovoltaic industry is growing exponentially.

First of allThere is no doubt that carbon emissions will exacerbate the greenhouse effect,To address the climate crisis, we need to upgrade our energy mix at the same time.

Secondly, new energy technologies represented by photovoltaics also apply Moore's Law.

After the early stage, the future technology path will also show exponential development.By 2050, China's clean energy will account for far more than 50%.

According to the target node of carbon neutrality in 2060, the proportion of clean energy in China should reach at least 80%, half of which will be photovoltaic.Under this premise, we might as well do a simple arithmetic problem to calculate how many photovoltaics China needs by 2060.

China now consumes about 0.5 billion tons of oil a year, accounting for 18.9 percent of all energy consumption, which means that if we replace all energy sources with oil, we need at least 2.65 billion tons of oil a year.

Every 100GW of photovoltaic system produces electricity every year, which is equivalent to the equivalent energy of 0.05 billion tons of oil, so if we replace 2.65 billion tons of oil with photovoltaic now, we need 5300GW of photovoltaic installed capacity (in 2020, China's photovoltaic installed capacity is about 253GW). The country has a population of about 1.4 billion, and the per capita needs at least 3.8KW of photovoltaic installed capacity.

Considering that China's society will develop in an all-round way in the next 40 years, the economic scale may double or even more, the level of modernization will continue to rise, and the per capita energy consumption will also increase rapidly in the future.

In 2019, the U.S. consumed 3.66 times as much energy per capita as China (in 2019, China consumed about 4.86 billion tons of standard coal with a population of about 1.4 billion; the U.S. consumed 4.163 billion tons of standard coal with a population of about 0.328 billion in 2019). If China's per capita energy consumption in 2060 reaches the level of the United States in 2019, then by 2060, China will need at least 13.9KW of photovoltaic installed capacity per capita.

Assuming that photovoltaics account for 50% of China's energy structure in 2060, at least 6.95KW of photovoltaic installed capacity will be needed per capita in the future.

What kind of concept is the per capita installed photovoltaic capacity of nearly 7KW? Assuming that the total population remains unchanged and each person has 7KW of installed photovoltaic capacity, then China will need to accumulate 9800GW of installed photovoltaic capacity. In other words, excluding the existing installed capacity of about 253GW, we need to add at least about 237GW of photovoltaic installed capacity every year in the next 40 years.

The seemingly heavy task will be a huge driving force for the development of China's photovoltaic industry.The per capita installed photovoltaic capacity of 7KW and the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity of 9800GW will profoundly change China's society..

China plans to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060, which is expected to be achieved 5 to 10 years ahead of schedule with the support of the photovoltaic industry.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other six departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Energy Electronics Industry."

Among them, it is proposed to accelerate the breakthrough of intelligent photovoltaic innovation, develop high-purity silicon materials, large-size silicon wafer technology, support the production of high-efficiency and low-cost crystalline silicon batteries, promote the research and development of advanced technologies such as N-type high-efficiency batteries, flexible thin-film batteries, perovskites and laminated batteries, and enhance the capacity of large-scale mass production. Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that the theoretical photoelectric conversion efficiency of perovskite solar cells is as high as 33%, breaking through the upper limit of 29% of traditional crystalline silicon cells, and after adopting the laminated mode, the photoelectric conversion efficiency is expected to exceed 45%, which has attractive prospects in the photovoltaic field and is expected to set off a new round of technological innovation in the photovoltaic field.

It is understood that there are many technical routes for photovoltaic cells, and there are currently three mainstream ones, namely crystalline silicon cells, thin film cells, and perovskite cells. From the perspective of market share, although crystalline silicon cells are the first generation of photovoltaic cells, they still account for the vast majority, while perovskite cells have not been opened for large-scale commercial use.Since 2022, the industrialization process of perovskite batteries has accelerated significantly, and many companies have begun trial production.

According to GCL Optoelectronics data, the cost of perovskite components produced on the 100MW pilot line is $1/W,When the production capacity is increased to 10GW, the cost of perovskite components will be reduced to 0.5 yuan/W,With future capacity increases, the cost of perovskite components is expected to be further reduced to 0.3-0.4 yuan/W, which is a significant advantage over the current component cost of 2 yuan/W for PERC batteries.

At present, the investment amount of single GW is about 1.3 billion yuan. It is expected that with the continuous progress of technology and scale effect, the investment amount of perovskite single GW is expected to drop to 6-0.7 billion yuan by 2026, and the industrial investment space will exceed 20 billion in the next five years. The agency expects that,In 2023, the perovskite solar cell industry pilot line expansion scale or up to 1000-1200MW,The year-on-year growth of 350MW in 2022 has nearly doubled.

It is worth noting that,A number of perovskite battery companies said that by the end of 2023, they will begin planning to build a 1GW production line.After these production capacities are put into production, the perovskite battery will officially enter the large-scale commercial stage. At present, the single-junction perovskite battery has two 100MW production lines put into production, the crystal silicon perovskite laminated battery has two test lines under construction, the full perovskite laminated battery has a pilot line put into production, and the copper indium gallium selenium perovskite laminated by the end of 2021 has a research institute and production line construction. At the same time, the last two years perovskite primary market investment hot, Tencent, Guiyuan and Ningde era and other cross-border layout of the perovskite industry.

In terms of the commercialization path of perovskite batteries, industry insiders believe that we can learn from the "starting" method of crystalline silicon batteries and cut into small application scenarios. Wang Xiaobo said that crystalline silicon cells were initially used in space equipment, and then gradually entered the field of communications, industrial applications, power construction in areas without electricity, and finally entered the building photovoltaic distributed power stations and large ground power stations.

[Statement] Part of the article is excerpted from "Future Carbon Neutrality and the First Leading Role of Human Energy". The article does not represent Tongjia's scientific and technological position. If there are problems with the content and copyright of the work, please contact Tongjia Technology within 30 days after the publication of this article to delete or discuss the use of copyright.